Massive Miscalculation by GOP Chairman Reince Priebus: No Debates with CNN or NBC

Earlier today, I saw a series of tweets from the GOP Chairman, Reince Priebus:

Today I sent letters to @NBC & @CNN telling them to halt production of Hillary Clinton programming. http://t.co/L3oDeq7KBC

— Reince Priebus (@Reince) August 5, 2013

Tell the media: Dump the Hillary docs or no debates! http://t.co/T80t8AIDtf — Reince Priebus (@Reince) August 5, 2013

The actions of CNN & NBC to produce Hillary Clinton programming is disturbing and disappointing and shows political favoritism. — Reince Priebus (@Reince) August 5, 2013

Production of Hillary programming must be stopped or the RNC will not partner with CNN or NBC for any 2016 primary debates.

— Reince Priebus (@Reince) August 5, 2013

Ok. If they don’t agree, then we will dump and block them from our primary debates. Pretty simple.

— Reince Priebus (@Reince) August 5, 2013

At first blush, it seems like nothing more than some kind of a stunt to draw attention to the matter. It’s also a great way for the Chairman to do some interviews and bad-mouth CNN/NBC. As I thought about it a bit more, it seems like this can’t end well for the Chairman:

.@Reince & the @GOP not having primary debates on CNN is absurd. How do they expect to win independents/moderates? #tcot #tlot

— Jeremiah Stanghini (@JStanghini) August 5, 2013

It wouldn’t surprise anyone that there are more Democrats who watch MSNBC and more Republicans who watch Fox News, but what about the people who watch CNN? Well, as it happens, this is home to the political Independents of the electorate. According to TiVo data (actually quite sophisticated):

CNN, which has branded itself as the cable news network without a partisan skew, has apparently made the sale among independent voters. The network’s biggest skew was among independents, 17 percent above the national average with that group.

So, the majority of Independents that watch TV get their news from CNN. Let’s play out this scenario for the GOP. Assume that CNN/NBC decide not to pull their “Hillary Programming,” then the GOP has two options:

1. They’re forced into reneging on their initial stance of no primary debates for CNN/NBC.

2. Or, Like they said, having no debates with those networks. I suppose there might be some unforeseen third option, but at this point, this is what it looks like.

If they pull they’re debates with CNN/NBC, they’ll be losing out on the largest concentration of Independents. For a party that’s currently not in power that wants to be in power, in what will be an “up for grabs” election with President Barack Obama joining the list of Presidents who’ve served two terms, it seems ludicrous that they’d want to remove “free media” of their candidates to Independents.

So, this would force them into reneging on their stance of not having any debates with CNN/NBC, right? Except that this may make them look weak with their base of voters, which usually wouldn’t matter. However, “Republicans like elected officials who stick to their positions.” From my vantage point, this ultimatum has backed the GOP into a corner for which there is no escape.

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Revisiting that third option… it may just be that no one cares about any of this when the 2014 midterms roll around or the 2016 general election.