I forecast questions that can’t be answered with certainty, and I build the operational machinery that lets small organizations act on answers like them.

Forecasting work since 2011, with organizations including Good Judgment Inc., Metaculus, the Swift Centre, RAND, the Forecasting Research Institute, and Mercor. First of 350 in the 2015 Good Judgment Project, and top-ten finishes in the Good Judgment, Metaculus, and RAND rankings in the years since.

Most of that work now points at artificial intelligence: serving as part of the human benchmark that AI forecasting systems are measured against, quantifying biosecurity risk from large language models, and modelling long-horizon AI risk scenarios for policy audiences.

Since 2025, operations at the Future of Life Foundation: fiscal sponsorship, grant and fellowship operations, contractor and vendor systems, and cross-entity compliance across two nonprofit entities.

From 2016 to 2024, digital transformation in the Government of Canada, as one of Canada’s Free Agents: AI product management, digital identity and credentials, data governance, and change management.