Category Archives: Wisdom

Overconfidence: Know Thyself

On the way to the grocery store this afternoon, I passed through a construction zone. As I was driving by, I glanced over at the work they were doing and remarked, “Oh, it looks like they’re almost finished. They’ll probably be done by the end of the month.” I kept on driving and then laughed out loud. I know nothing about construction and certainly don’t know enough to look at the progress of the job site regarding road reconstruction to be as “confident” as I was in saying they’ll be finished in a month.

Earlier this year, I wrote about lectures I listened to on my trip from . One of those lectures was by Maggie Neale on the subject of negotiation (I highly recommend listening to it!) One of the things she spoke about in this lecture is exemplified by my story about the construction site.

She had a pop bottle full of paperclips and asked the audience to guess how many paperclips were in the bottle. She told them there wasn’t some sort of trick to it and asked them to think up a number. Then, she asked them to come up with a 95% . Meaning, she wanted the people to come up with a range of the number of paperclips that could be in the bottle, such that they could be 95% confident that the number of actual paperclips in the bottle fell within the range. If I recall correctly, she even said something about being certain that there were less than 1,000,000 paperclips in the bottle.

After they were all done, she told them how many paperclips were in the bottle and then polled the audience to find how many people had the actual number of paperclips within their range.About half of the audience raised their hands. Neale went on to say that statistically speaking, only 5% of the audience should have not guessed a range wherein the actual number of paperclips lay. That is, 95% of the audience should have had the actual number of paperclips fall within their range. As only 50% of the audience raised their hands, she went on to explain why.

The explanation for the paperclips is the same explanation as to why I made a guess about the construction site. Humans have a tendency to be confident — nay — overconfident about their judgments (regardless of their accuracy). This is known in some circle as the .

I knew about this particular bias and I still fell into the trap (albeit shortly) of making an overconfident assessment about the construction site. I wonder what judgments you (or maybe your compatriots) are being overconfident about? Now that you know about this particular bias, I hope that you’ll be a bit more mindful when making estimations and the like.

Do You Know Your Biases?

“You will learn from others around you being skeptical more than you will learn by becoming skeptical.” –

This past October, a world-renowned psychologist () published his latest book, . I’ve read a lot of reviews of the book and seen many of the interviews of him about this book and one of my favorite quotes (above) comes from the video (below). Take a few minutes and watch:

Kahneman, along with have done so much for the fields of psychology and economics. Some say that this book is the culmination of their work. I have enjoyed reading Kahneman and Tversky’s work through the years and think that their contribution on the subject of is monumental.

The quote I started this post with (…learn more from others around you being skeptical…) is worth talking about for a little bit. When I first heard him say that, I must have replayed it at least a dozen times. I heard the words he was saying, but it took some time for the wisdom to sink in. So what is it that Kahneman was saying?

Have you ever heard of an ? It’s the idea that your ideas and beliefs are reinforced (or amplified) because those that you tell them to share said beliefs. There’s nothing wrong with that, but if you’re familiar with and some of the , you know how hard it is to break from the group’s opinion on a topic. I don’t think that Kahneman was referring to this phenomenon in particular, but if you think about how hard it is to break from the group’s dominant viewpoint, it would make some sense that being “skeptical” yourself is not as easy as it sounds. However, if those around you are skeptical, it will be easier to learn from their skepticism about a given topic.

So, as you think about assembling your next business team or you’re just talking with your friends, remember how important and valuable the dissenting voice can be. Remember that having a  might not be the best idea. Remember how hard it is to be the singular dissenting voice. Remember to encourage healthy disagreement and an analysis from all sides. You’ll be much better off.

Finding a Moment for Stillness, Peace, Quiet, Calm, or Silence

How often do you find yourself (or maybe your colleague) moving quickly from obligation to obligation without regard for a second to sit still? In our fast-paced lives, rarely do you see someone take the time for themselves. That is, rarely do people take time out of their lives for themselves.

While I think this is important to recognize, I also realize that the way that life is structured, it’s not easy to take time for yourself. There are always those 4 or 5 things at the bottom of the to-do list. Usually, things you’d like to do, like: play my guitar; hit the links; start writing my book; etc. I realize that it’s not easy. There’s so much going on in our lives that we often go from task to task, just trying to get it all done. I’ve already written about the importance of , but I think it’s equally important to take time between tasks.

What do I mean by that?

Take, for example, the person who just gets out of an important meeting at work and realizes that they are a few minutes late to pick-up their kid from daycare. They race from the elevator to their car and fly out of the parking garage, anxiously looking at the clock. They get to the daycare center and end up being a few minutes late (as predicted). However, this lateness isn’t an issue as there are other children who are awaiting rides. More importantly, our main character’s child, the one who needed to be picked up at “just the right time,” is busy engaged with one of their schoolmates.

There are a few things we could glean from this example, but I’m aiming for one: think about the time that our main character was “rushing” and thinking about “being late” to pick up their child. During this time, our main character’s physiology was reacting. The adrenal glands were pumping adrenaline into the veins (as the body does when it encounters stress). This increased stressful state, however, was completely unnecessary. There was no imminent danger on the way from work to the daycare center for our main character. Our main character would have arrived (at the same time) and without the added adrenaline coursing through their veins. Most notably, our main character would have arrived much more relaxed had they taken even a few seconds to sit still.

There are millions of examples of this happening everyday around the world. I would hazard a guess that they are on the decline. With the growing prevalence of meditation in the western world (), people are learning how to be relaxed. They are learning to take things a little slower and set aside some time in the day for themselves. I think this bodes well for those people who do so, but also for the rest of the people in the world. As we lower our , we are better equipped to deal with the stressors of our daily lives (without overreaction).

So, do yourself a favor and before you engage in your next activity/task, take a minute (or a few seconds) to clear your thoughts and clear your head. You’ll be surprised how useful you may find this.

Are You Fully Present to What’s In Front of You?

How often is it that you are completely listening to what someone is telling you? How often is it that someone is completely listening to you? Could you tell? Do you know the difference?

We often think that we’re very good at multitasking, but . It’s not that we’re not good at multitasking, per se. It’s more that when we do multitask, our attention is split, and we don’t do the things that we’re doing as well as we could. In fact, splitting our attention can cause us to miss important information in one of the tasks. :

During a conference call with the executive committee of a nonprofit board on which I sit, I decided to send an email to a client.

I know, I know. You’d think I’d have learned.

Last week I wrote about the . Multitasking is dangerous. And so I proposed a way to stop.

But when I sent that email, I wasn’t in a car. I was safe at my desk. What could go wrong?

Well, I sent the client the message. Then I had to send him another one, this time with the attachment I had forgotten to append. Finally, my third email to him explained why that attachment wasn’t what he was expecting. When I eventually refocused on the call, I realized I hadn’t heard a question the Chair of the Board had asked me.

Situations like these happen all the time. Except, like the author alludes to, they don’t always happen from they “safety” of one’s office. I’ve written about , but I didn’t broach the subject of texting while driving. As I make my way around Metro DC, I’m surprised by the frequency with which I peer over at the drivers around me to find someone with one hand on their phone (texting) and the other hand on the wheel…while simultaneously splitting one eye on the road and one eye on the phone. Now, I don’t mind so much, if someone’s texting (at a stop light, but there are perils to that, too), but while driving down the road!? Really, is your message that important? Is it worth… your life?

Initially, I led off the post talking about being present (or having someone being present) to what’s happening in the now. Specifically, I’m talking about being in a meeting, maybe on a date, or just simply having a conversation. Isn’t the conversation much more engaging when someone’s giving you their full attention. When you’re giving someone your full attention? Maybe you pick up on some subtle cues (that you usually miss). Cues that are communicated only when one’s attention is fully engaged in the other person.

It’s these instances – when there is complete  – can the best of what’s possible emerge.

The Unending Wisdom of TEDTalks

For quite some time now, I’ve been accumulating a list of TEDTalks that I wanted to do posts about. Unfortunately, I think the list is growing “out of control.” As such, I thought I would just do a catch-all post to cover some of the more under-discussed TEDTalks. If you’re unfamiliar with TEDTalks, I highly recommend checking out the list of the . There are some really good topics there. In previous , I have discussed other TEDTalks (), and I’m likely to talk about them again in the future. Without further adieu, here are some of the TEDTalks that I think are worth a gander:

– This one was recommended to me by a good friend of mine, likely because of my inclination for a positive disposition about life. There were some interesting statistics about smiling (and health). I highly recommend this to anyone, but especially to those who would rather be gloomy.

– This is a talk I learned of by following the . It was given by one of the passengers on-board the infamous  (the one that landed in the Hudson). Not only was this passenger on-board, he had a front row seat to what was going on as he was in seat 1A. I very much enjoyed his talk. I think my favorite line from his talk: “I’m a collector of bad wines.” If you don’t quite get what he means by this, I’d watch the video.

– As the top comment on the video laments: “Why doesn’t this have more views than Lady Gaga?” Given that there are many ways of learning, I think it’s important that data be represented in many fashions. Rolling has, really, made data interesting (to those who would have otherwise not thought so) and even for those who think that numbers are interesting all by themselves. In an updating post about who I’m following on Twitter, you’ll notice a number of additions of people who are focused on transforming data in chart/graph/etc. form.

– I think I was watching  one night and one of his guests was Salman Khan. I was amazed by what this one guy had put together from simply starting with the intention to help his cousins with mathematics. There are now thousands and thousands of videos teaching students around the world about a range of subjects from the French Revolution to calculus.

– I just had to include this follow-up to one of the . I must say, I am surprised that this video has only garnered about a quarter million views in a year’s time, while his first TEDTalk has more than 2.5 million views.

– Somewhere along the way, I developed an affinity for the brain and brain science (or neuroscience). Things that have to do with the brain fascinate me. Maybe it’s the trillions of intricacies to the brain (I’m a , remember?) In this video, Limb shows the neuroscience behind creativity.

– I’m not necessarily endorsing WikiLeaks (one way or the other), but I believe it can be useful to seek to understand the viewpoint or reasons why someone does something.

– With a title like this, how could I not include this in a list of TEDTalks to watch? I’m in favor of most things that seek to unify the world in peace. In this video, Hunter explains how he attempts to get his 4th-graders to solve the problems of the world. I think this is superbly brilliant! Most of the time, children haven’t been socialized into ways of thinking that can become rigid. It’s useful to allow them to use their unencumbered imagination to work through some of these complicated issues.

There are many more TEDTalks that are worth talking about (both under-viewed and adequately viewed). I invite you to share with us some of your favorite TEDTalks in the comments section.

Everything is Dynamic: Nothing Stays the Same

As I think back to my , I can’t help but be in awe of how much has changed. Not just in the world, but with me, too. A little more than a month ago, I was looking over my for this site and realizing that it needed a bit of updating. I also noticed that my “mission/vision” statement needed some updating. I wrote both of these things 6 months ago and they need updating. It’s amazing how quickly we can grow and evolve from our previous selves. I only started writing posts for this site 6 months ago, but I’d say I’m quite different from the person I was when I first started. And so much has changed. At that point, I was just finishing up my master’s in and considering my options. Now, I’m on the precipice of my next big adventure: an MBA.

~

The problem with static pages, or static anything really is just that — they’re static. Nothing stays the same. Everything is always changing. Moving. Growing. Interacting. Dynamic. The title of this post is “everything is dynamic.” I chose the word dynamic because I felt it really represented the way that I see the world. The  of dynamic: “characterized by constant change, activity, or progress.” I really feel that this is representative of the world. Everything is constantly changing… it’s always in motion.

Static pages or static (things) don’t have this quality. [For that matter, why would they?] This changing and interactive quality is what emerged in the mid-2000’s known as . In the early days of the internet, there were just static pages. Somewhere along the way, someone thought it would be a good idea to have surfers interact with their content. This was the switch from static websites to more dynamic and interactive websites. One way to have a dynamic site is to attach a blog to it. Blogs are constantly being updated (or can be constantly updated). Of course, you could constantly update the ‘static’ pages, but that might not necessarily continue to attract traffic.

~

I’ve mostly been talking about static websites, but as I said initially, this applies to all life. Nothing stays the same. People often lament that when they are on an airplane, there’s no movement — that they’re still. This couldn’t be further from the truth. Do you know how many chemical reactions, interactions, and processes that are taking place in your body right now just as you read this? Not to be too dark, but the only time one can be completely still is after they’ve had their last breath, but even then, the decaying process begins (another dynamic process). So really, not even then, can something be static.

I’ve also heard the argument that inanimate objects are static and not moving. Okay, that seems plausible. Except when we take a closer look at the object under the lens of quantum physics, which tells us that most of what we think of as solid objects are actually made up of empty space. And in that empty space are tiny particles that are oscillating at a very high frequency. In fact, I’ve even heard of some people who are able to perceive this quality.

Overall, I really wanted to emphasize the point that nothing in life stays the same (which is a good thing!) and that things are always moving, interacting, and changing. With regard to the idea that “nothing staying the same” is negative, I emphatically disagree and would direct you to a recent post about .

The Best Piece of Advice: We’ll See…

One of the best pieces of advice I’ve ever come across is one with regard to . I’ve written about perspective and having a in posts before, but I think that this particular post, or more accurately, the content of this post, is the best summary of my “perspective” when it comes to perspective.

The I’m quoting this from says the story is Taoist, but I’ve heard other people say it’s from different traditions:

[There was] an old farmer who had worked his crops for many years. One day his horse ran away. Upon hearing the news, his neighbors came to visit.

“Such bad luck,” they said sympathetically.

“We’ll see,” the farmer replied.

The next morning the horse returned, bringing with it three other wild horses.

“How wonderful,” the neighbors exclaimed.

“We’ll see,” replied the old man.

The following day, his son tried to ride one of the untamed horses, was thrown, and broke his leg. The neighbors again came to offer their sympathy on his misfortune.

“We’ll see,” answered the farmer.

The day after, military officials came to the village to draft young men into the army. Seeing that the son’s leg was broken, they passed him by. The neighbors congratulated the farmer on how well things had turned out.

“We’ll see” said the farmer.

This kind of story could keep going on and on and on — and it has relevance to every subject (you’ll notice that I’ve placed it in every category that I currently have for the posts I write). While there are some things that I categorically disagree with (the death penalty being one), I could see this story or as the answer to many hardships in people’s lives. Having lived through *some* hardships so far, I can understand how hearing these words are not necessarily comforting with regard to certain instances, but well after the fact (in my experience), the perspective created by these words can illuminate some unexpected insights.

~

I thought I’d present some examples from the news where we could apply this wisdom:

– Many Toronto Blue Jays’ fans are pleased (myself included) that they acquired Colby Rasmus (via trade). He may turn out to be a great player for the Jays, or he may not. We’ll see.

– Most economists (and people) following the “” will tell you that the US needs to raise its debt ceiling or there will be ramifications of epic proportions. Most of what I’ve heard/read on the issue seems to be a whole lot of politicking. If the US defaults on its loans will that be the worst thing in the world? If the US averts this “disaster,” will that be a good thing? We’ll see. (This particular We’ll See might not have a concrete answer for another 30 years).

– As Borders’ stores continue to close their doors for the final time, many speculate on what this may mean for other businesses similar to Borders. The outlook isn’t usually positive, but maybe this will free up time for other endeavors. We’ll see.

– (An odd bit of news, to say the least). This particular example is quite similar to the farmer’s son falling off the horse and breaking his leg. While I don’t expect Alex Trebek to be drafted to the military, who knows what this injury will do for his “perspective” on life. And the answer is: We’ll see.

As you can see, these “three” words can apply to pretty much anything you can come up with. I’d like to invite you to share with us in the comments some situations that you initially thought were poor (or great) that turned out to be great (or not so great) with us in the comments section.

For the folks who are visual learners:

The “Secret” to a Happy Life: Psst, It’s not really a Secret at All

I’m still fairly young by most standards, but I’ve had quite a (both formal and informal). In that time, I have learned (at least I’d like to think so) a thing or two about myself and other humans (by way of my time in psychology). Sometimes, I like to sit in a coffee shop on a busy street corner and just watch “us” interact with “us.” It can be quite entertaining — I recommend doing it at least once.

As I watch these people about, I’m struck by the constant string of perplexed faces. More than that, there are a number of folks who don’t look happy. There could be any number of reasons for that, so I won’t speculate, but I will group them together. Meaning, the expression on their face, I would gather, has to do with something they are thinking. This thing that they are thinking causing this uncomfortable expression, more than likely, is unpleasant. Some would even say that .

So we’ve got the group of folks thinking things that are causing unpleasant feelings. I pan to the right and I see a couple arguing on the street. Relationships can be fickle, so who knows what the surface argument is about. The underlying argument, more than likely, has to do with something that one person is thinking. It’s a similar situation to those who are walking down the street with strange looks on their faces, only in this instance, we have the people expressing themselves (outwardly) in an intentional (or sometimes, not-so-intentional) manner.

There’s the folks thinking and walking and then there’s the arguing folks. There are other examples I could bring up, but let’s stick with these two for now.

I’d like you to imagine these interactions, these people walking and thinking or the couple arguing, if both parties (or the singular party) didn’t assume anything. How would the interaction look different if the rule was to “assume nothing.” Seriously now, take a second to imagine the scenario in your head — (I’ll wait). Tick. Tock. Tick. Tock. Tick. Tock. Hey, welcome back. What did you notice? Did the interaction take place differently? I bet it did. Let’s take a closer look.

With the people who are walking and thinking, the looks on their faces are evidence of the thoughts they are having. These thoughts are likely about someone (or something) that isn’t going the way they hoped it would. What’s the underlying cause: assumptions. These people are assuming that what has happened wouldn’t (or shouldn’t) happen. If we eliminate this preliminary step of assumption, the reality that exists is no longer at odds. It just is. There’s nothing to be disdainful about. (It’s pretty hard to be angry with reality.)

Let’s move on over to the couple. Let’s say the are arguing about the cost of parking. One person wants to park on the street, while the other wants to look for more inexpensive parking. The one who wants to look for more inexpensive parking may be operating under the assumption that a) there will be less expensive parking somewhere else, and/or b) we don’t have the money to afford this much for parking. Part b) of that sentence assumes that there won’t be more money coming in from (anywhere or more specifically, an unexpected source). Maybe, when they are hanging their coats up at home, a $20 bill falls out of the pocket — boom! Paid for parking.

Or how about another example that I bet most of us can relate to. You’re driving down the highway in the “fast lane” when all of a sudden, you start to come up really fast on someone causing you to slam on your brakes. How dare they make you have to slam on your brakes. Who do they think they are? You may begin to tailgate (I hope not!) or you may slow down or you may try to pass them on the right (again, I hope not!) But what’s the underlying cause for your anger? You may say that it’s because that person shouldn’t be driving slow in the fast lane or maybe you think (as part of the first half of this sentence), they should move over if someone quickly approaches from behind. I went to driving school when I was a teenager and I don’t remember hearing those “laws.” So, what are they? These are assumptions we carry about driving on the highway and we think that people are supposed to abide by our assumptions.

My purpose in writing this is not to make you feel bad about yourself (or your assumptions), but simply to shed light on the idea that there may be some assumptions that are contributing (maybe even causing) you to feel the things you think you are justified in feeling. And in the moment, you probably feel infinitely justified. However, once the emotion has passed, I would encourage you to look back and see if you can identify an “assumption” that you may have been operating under during that time of distress.

Quotes: Pensiveness, Presaging, and Perception

As I a couple of weeks ago, I started tagging posts where I used quotes with the tag “,” so it’s easier for you to find other posts with quotes in them. I also decided (a couple of weeks ago), to every once and awhile, do a post with just quotes. The first post of quotes contained famous words in passion, produce, and production. Today’s post of quotes covers the topics of pensiveness, presaging, and perception. (I don’t have some sort of preoccupation or propensity for the letter ‘P,’ it just happened this way.) The first, from :

“Whenever you find yourself on the side of the majority, it’s time to pause and reflect.”

I first saw/heard this quote on an episode of The West Wing (or so I thought — in trying to find the episode it was in, I’m at a loss). I could see saying something like this given his character (no pun intended). This seems to be a poignant quote, especially for politics, with regard to debating ideas and bills. I’ve seen a number of articles explaining the and I think it’s true. Dissent is a way of preventing  from taking hold. More than this, dissent allows for a diversity of opinion and thus, a diversity of ideas. When there is more than one opinion bandied about, it would seem (and is) more likely that new ideas can emerge.

An important piece that comes to mind is or what I was explained to me as dialectics. I’ve been reading the wiki article, so that I could more accurately describe the concept that was explained to me and I now see that maybe what I was told was dialectics is not actually dialectics (or maybe is a form of dialectics). Anyway, the exercise that was explained to me was for when two people have differing opinions (and want to settle an argument or come to a resolution of ideas). They begin to have a discussion, but instead of arguing for their own points of view, they argue against their point of view. So, in effect, they find support for their compatriot’s point of view. It can be a very different experience. The next quote we have is from :

“A good hockey player plays where the puck is. A great hockey player plays where the puck is going to be.” – Wayne Gretzky

Personally, I haven’t been a very big “fan” of Wayne Gretzky, but that’s more because I grew up watching the Toronto Maple Leafs in the 1990s and Wayne Gretzky played for the rival Los Angeles Kings. Nonetheless, it’s hard to debate the ‘‘ without including Gretzky in the argument. This quote above is one I’ve found in some of the unlikeliest of places (business, for one). It’s a different way of re-focusing one’s attention on what’s to come rather than what is. It seems especially important when talking about . I wouldn’t advocate living “in the future,” but in most instances, it’s important to have foresight. And the last quote we have is from :

“I know what I have given you. I do not know what you have received.” – Antonio Porchia

This is a great “” quote that can almost come across as arrogant or condescending, depending upon how you receive it (ha!) It kind of lends credence to the idea that “we only hear what we want to hear.” It’s probably not reasonable for everyone to engage in “” all the time, but I bet there’d be a whole let less misunderstandings in the world. really are just a sophisticated set of symbols that help us communicate with one another. It is but a means to an end. It’s like telephones. It’s not that we like/need/want telephones, but we want the ability to communicate with people who are not nearby. The next time you’re talking with someone, think about how much of what you’re saying is actually being received. Better yet, the next time you’re listening to someone, think about how much of what they’re saying to you is actually being received.

Have You Tried… Rearranging Your Space?

Right now, my house is in a bit of an upheaval of sorts – I’m in the process of packing and subsequently moving from the Hawaiian Islands to the east coast (metro DC). As I went to make myself coffee this morning, I realized that the kettle was not in the same place that it was yesterday (or for the majority of the time I’ve lived here). It threw me for a second, until I realized it was on a counter across the kitchen. As I plugged the kettle in to heat up the water, I realized that this situation offered me a new perspective.

How often do you find yourself stuck in a rut? You’re at your desk and you just can’t think of where to go next. You don’t know if you should choose the first option or the second option. Maybe you have writer’s block. Maybe you’re trying to solve a really important problem, but you can’t think of an answer. In fact, all you can think of with regard to answers are all of the answers you’ve already thought of. Has this ever happened to you? What have you tried to do to rectify the situation? Have you thought of rearranging your space?

Some would say the and this is not a concept unbeknownst to the world’s religions (see: ). Have you ever noticed this? Have you ever noticed that your physical world is a mess (and so is your head space)? It doesn’t even have to be this way. As I was saying earlier, it could just be that the way that things are set-up in your environment has become stagnant. Maybe the energy in the room needs to shift (to allow the energy of your thoughts to shift) and allow you to come to a solution.

You may think it’s , but I pause and reflect anytime someone presents an idea from ancient times. In this particular instance, I think that applies. You don’t even have to believe it because it’s ancient wisdom, try it for yourself. Try rearranging your room (either intuitively or counterintuitively). Maybe put your desk in a way that your and see how it feels.

When I first sat down to write this post, I didn’t intend to use Feng Shui as a reference, but so it goes. If you like, you can totally ignore the inclusion of Feng Shui in this post. I just like to have some sort of reference for you to click on (to lend credence to what it is that I am saying), but with what I’m saying today, you can totally just try it out on your own (sans Feng Shui). Whether or not you believe in “unseen energy,” I think you’ll find that when you rearrange your space (physical), you’ll gain a new perspective on things (literally and figuratively).