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Jeremiah Stanghini

Free Agent, Professor, and Superforecaster

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Tag Archives: Estimate

When 99% Confident Leads to Wrongness 40% of the Time: List of Biases in Judgment and Decision-Making, Part 9

This week, we’re looking at one of my ‘favorite’ biases, in that it’s one that once you know, it can be quite comical to spot it in others (and yourself, if you still fall for it, from time to time). From Wikipedia: the overconfidence effect “is a well-established bias in which someone’s subjective confidence in …

Continue reading “When 99% Confident Leads to Wrongness 40% of the Time: List of Biases in Judgment and Decision-Making, Part 9”

Posted byJeremiah StanghiniMarch 25, 2013March 28, 2013Posted inBusiness, Psychology, Science, WisdomTags: Biases, Cognitive bias, Confidence, Confidence interval, Confident, Confirmation Bias, Decision-Making, Estimate, Gamblers Fallacy, Graduate School of Business, Guess, Guessing, Guesstimate, Margaret Neale, Materials, Overconfidence Effect, Paper clip, Planning fallacy, Pulp and Paper, Scott Plous, Stanford9 Comments on When 999 Confident Leads to Wrongness 409 of the Time: List of Biases in Judgment and Decision-Making, Part 9

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